Outsmarting the Odds

Curiosity to find the games hidden laws is our main motive to incept the Beta5AI project. We published our first prediction in early 2021 and continue to improve every day.

Beta5 AI

Unlike existing algorithms that are mostly Poisson-based, we believe there is a significant amount of games governed by different laws. Our research focuses on discovering such games to vastly improve outcome predictions.

  • Aggregate human experience and combine it with AI to predict the outcome of football games.
  • Validate our results in direct competition with the betting market.
  • Calculate the optimal wager for the bet, integrating known and our own mathematical achievements.
  • Show our complete bet history, never hiding our losses.
  • Expand over numerous worldwide football tournaments and several betting markets.
  • Historically held honorable places on world-renowned tipster sites and maintained strong, positive betting statistics.
  • Process odds and betting analytics for over 600,000 matches
  • Analyze more than 20,000,000 bets a year
2021
9.07% ROI
7,611 picks
2022
8.08% ROI
27,201 picks
2023
14.28% ROI
23,163 picks
2024
14.52% ROI
22,124 picks
2025
6.29% ROI
94,664 picks
Current
2026
View live stats

World Cup 2026

Completed

Beta5.ai covered every match with free AI predictions, detailed analytics, and value bets. The tournament has ended, but its complete match archive remains available to explore.

View archive

Coverage & Data

We collect and integrate football data from diverse sources: game details, betting odds, tournament situations, and geography.

200+National & International Tournaments
94Events across 7 Core Markets
20+Supported Betting Platforms
15+Verified News & Data Sources
2011Match Histories Dating Back To

As soon as a match appears and we are confident in the analytics and prediction, we immediately publish it on the /predictions page and update its data every minute (this is how all matches work).

The AI Revolution & FairOdds

Implementing advanced AI has allowed us to make a massive leap in model training, precise analytics, and the collection of critically important data.

Fair Odds

This technology allows us to accurately evaluate the game long before the starting whistle. Every minute, we analyze over 1,000 pre-match events within a rolling window of Today + 3 Days.

Premium AI Models

We utilize high-end language models to provide high-quality text analytics, answer user questions, and offer tailored betting advice based on individual user strategies.

Features & Machine Learning

The features contain aggregated market opinions about games, extracted directly from betting odds.

Team Power Ratings:

  • Glicko rating: Adapts exceptionally well to short-term changes.
  • Elo rating: Proves team consistency in the long term.

Team results are accounted for using sliding windows and exponential moving averages. Positions and motivation are derived dynamically from the tournament situation.

The Algorithm Engine:

  • We utilize a tuned XGBoost algorithm combined with Deep Learning architectures, maintaining multiple models for the classification of score sums, score differences, both teams to score, and correct scores.
  • Smart Validation: Models are typically validated via a bootstrapped walk-forward routine. However, our AI can autonomously perform deep analysis and dynamically adjust testing and training samples to maximize accuracy.
  • Post-Prediction Analysis: The AI independently evaluates the outcome after the forecast is completed, allowing the system to learn continuously.
  • Calculated classification probabilities are adjusted via Dirichlet-multinomial game score distribution.

Market & Predictions

While generally producing a balanced opinion on game results, the betting market is affected by money flow and arbitrage prevention. These factors, combined with the stochastics of the whole process, give our algorithms “sweet spots” where our calculated event probability is greater than what bookmakers state, even including their margin.

90%
of all games contain at least one bet with a positive expected long-term yield.
10-11%
of all bets across all games have a positive expected yield.
0.1%
of all bets promise an expected yield of 10% and greater.
70%
of all games contain at least one bet where the system recommends a robust wager of at least 1% of the budget.

Having probabilities calculated and odds collected, we select the optimal prediction—a tip where the bet should be placed, minimizing inevitable temporary losses.

Advanced Risk Management

To calculate an optimal wager for a bet, we utilize an advanced risk management strategy that combines profit maximization techniques with strict risk restriction.

  • For profit maximization, we use the results of the Kelly criterion.
  • For risk restriction, we implement our own findings based on the Random Walk process.

Our benchmark tests show that even in a perfect case where all probabilities are calculated without error, the pure Kelly method leads to ruin in 20% of cases. Applying our advanced risk restriction technique slightly reduces peak profits but increases robustness immensely. Even with slightly optimistic probabilities, this approach reduces the chance of ruin to just 1%.

Accessible Analytics & Premium Value

We stand for accessible analytics. It is essential to us that users can evaluate our algorithm and view our open statistics. That is why we provide analytics in percentages and xGoals for all Free users, along with full access to matches and our value bets with specific edge limitations.

At the same time, we maintain an objective and fair price for our Premium plan. Premium unlocks our complete suite of analytics and betting features with predictions, empowering users to make controlled, intelligent football bets on any platform—not just the ones we actively provide odds for.

Transparency & Philosophy

Having proper risk management makes it possible to select an optimal wager for arbitrary betting odds received from any bookmaker. We play on original fortune, without the necessity to constantly add new money to it.

We are absolutely transparent regarding the history of our predictions and bets—giving you a true sight of where we win and where we lose.

We do our best to help you increase your wealth, or at least have fun as a minimal requirement. Before using our results, please learn carefully what we do, assess if it matches your routine, try some paper betting, and play responsibly.

We are happy to help, so reach out for feedback.

Stay with us on a bumpy ride of football comprehension!

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